HOW BACK-CHANNEL DIPLOMACY SHAPES THE TRIANGULAR RELATIONS OF USA-CHINA AND PAKISTAN

Abstract

This paper examines the unseen mechanisms of statecraft employed by Pakistan to navigate the intensifying geopolitical rivalry between the United States and the People's Republic of China from 2020 to 2025. Moving beyond conventional analysis of public diplomacy and interstate friction, this research posits that strategic stability was primarily achieved through sub-rosa (non-public) communication channels and tacit agreements, which consistently overruled declared foreign policy positions. Following the 2021 U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, Pakistan operationalized a 'dual-utility' stabilization effort, simultaneously maintaining Washington’s vital security access while providing Beijing sovereign guarantees for its $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) investment. The subsequent years (2022–2024) saw increasing systemic stress including financial constraints, CPEC implementation hurdles, and renewed domestic instability which were managed not via multilateral frameworks but through ad hoc, bespoke financial and security assurances negotiated via hidden nodes within the IMF, Chinese lending institutions, and military-to-military contacts. The transactional nature of this governance was acutely demonstrated in 2025: a minor, undeclared U.S.-China tariff accommodation yielded economic relief, immediately preceding the regional crisis triggered by India’s "Operation Sindoor" in May. The unprecedented cessation of hostilities within 96 hours is analyzed as the result of simultaneous, targeted pressure applied through high-level backchannels in both Washington and Beijing. The findings conclude that Pakistan’s short-term political solvency was secured by prioritizing crisis postponement and leveraging great-power dependence. Rather than achieving genuine strategic autonomy, the state remained locked in a high-stakes, perpetual equilibrium, forced to dynamically adjust its posture based on the leverage afforded by the preferred, immediate backchannel of the day.