CLIMATE CHANGE–DRIVEN SHIFTS IN WILDLIFE DISTRIBUTION AND GENETIC ADAPTATION: A GIS AND MOLECULAR ECOLOGY STUDY OF ENDANGERED MAMMALIAN SPECIES IN NORTHERN PAKISTAN

Abstract

Climate change has emerged as a major threat to global biodiversity, particularly affecting endangered mammalian species inhabiting ecologically sensitive mountain ecosystems. This study investigated climate change–driven shifts in wildlife distribution and genetic adaptation among endangered mammalian species in northern Pakistan using an integrated Geographic Information System (GIS) and molecular ecology approach. The study focused on selected endangered mammals, including snow leopard, Himalayan brown bear, musk deer, Asiatic black bear, and Himalayan ibex. Spatial habitat suitability modeling was conducted using climatic, topographic, and land-cover variables under current and future climate scenarios, while molecular ecological analysis assessed genetic diversity, population structure, and adaptive resilience using mitochondrial DNA and microsatellite markers. A quantitative research design was adopted, and data were collected from wildlife occurrence records, remote sensing databases, and biological samples obtained from selected conservation regions. The findings revealed significant climate-induced habitat shifts, habitat fragmentation, and reduction in ecological connectivity across mountainous ecosystems. Species distribution models projected considerable habitat decline for snow leopard and musk deer populations under future climatic conditions. Molecular analysis further indicated reduced genetic diversity and increased population differentiation among fragmented populations, suggesting declining adaptive capacity and increased extinction vulnerability. Statistical analysis demonstrated a significant negative relationship between habitat fragmentation and genetic diversity. The study concluded that climate change substantially threatens endangered mammalian species in northern Pakistan by altering habitat suitability and limiting genetic resilience. The integration of GIS and molecular ecology provided a comprehensive framework for assessing species vulnerability and conservation priorities. The study recommends climate-resilient conservation planning, ecological corridor restoration, habitat protection, and long-term genetic monitoring to support biodiversity conservation in Pakistan’s mountain ecosystems.