HYBRID REGIMES AND POLITICAL POLARIZATION: AN ANALYSIS OF DEMOCRATIC BACKSLIDING PAKISTAN’S CIVIL-MILITARY POWER DYNAMICS.

Abstract

Pakistan’s evolution into a hybrid regime—where formal electoral competition coexists with informal vetoes and coercive administrative practices—is examined through the interplay of civil–military bargaining and political polarization as drivers of democratic backsliding. Spanning 2008–2025, the study synthesizes theories of hybrid/competitive authoritarianism with civil–military relations to trace mechanisms such as pre-election engineering of party and ballot access, selective prosecutions (“lawfare”), media regulation, and episodic internet shutdowns. Using qualitative process-tracing that triangulates event evidence with trends from democracy and rights indices, it highlights inflection points around the 2018 transition, the 2022 no-confidence episode, and the 2024 polls. The analysis shows polarization functioning both as an instrument—mobilizing supporters while delegitimizing rivals and watchdogs—and as an outcome of power-sharing arrangements that weaken horizontal (judicial–legislative) and vertical (electoral) accountability without suspending elections. The article concludes with a reform agenda: insulating the Election Commission and prosecutors, placing statutory limits on network shutdowns, strengthening parliamentary oversight of the security sector and military-linked enterprises, and safeguarding digital and civic space to restore a level electoral playing field