CRITICAL MINERALS AND THE FUTURE OF PAKISTAN IN THE U.S.–CHINA RIVALRY

Abstract

The intensifying U.S.–China rivalry has extended beyond military and technological domains to encompass the control and supply of critical minerals—resources essential for renewable energy, advanced manufacturing, and defense industries. Pakistan, endowed with significant deposits of copper, lithium, rare earth elements, and other strategic minerals, finds itself at the center of this emerging geoeconomic contest. This paper examines the role of critical minerals in shaping Pakistan’s future amid the competing interests of Washington and Beijing. China’s deep economic footprint through the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has positioned it as the primary external actor in Pakistan’s resource extraction and infrastructure development. Conversely, the United States, driven by concerns of overdependence on Chinese supply chains, is seeking alternative partnerships to secure access to these resources. The analysis highlights how Pakistan’s mineral wealth could serve as both an opportunity and a liability. On the one hand, foreign investment promises revenue, industrial growth, and integration into global value chains. On the other, asymmetric dependencies risk deepening Pakistan’s economic vulnerabilities, exacerbating governance challenges, and entangling the country in the larger U.S.–China confrontation. The study argues that Pakistan’s strategic choices in managing its mineral sector will significantly influence its economic sovereignty, security posture, and regional relevance. By situating Pakistan within the broader framework of the “New Great Game,” this research underscores the urgent need for balanced policy measures. Sustainable governance of critical minerals, diversification of foreign partnerships, and transparent regulatory frameworks are essential if Pakistan is to avoid becoming merely a pawn in global power politics. Ultimately, Pakistan’s mineral endowment, if managed prudently, could transform it into a pivotal player in the twenty-first century’s resource geopolitics.