EVALUATING IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MAIZE PRODUCTION IN PAKISTAN: USING AN ARDL APPROACH

Abstract

Climate change is a global concern, and its effects are mostly faced by developing countries like Pakistan, particularly affecting agriculture, the most vulnerable sector directly linked to the climatic variations. It plays a key role in the livelihoods of the people, food security, and to GDP of Pakistan. Maize, the 2^nd most important cereal, is also facing the impacts of these variations. This study has analyzed the impacts of changing climate on maize production in Pakistan from 2000 to 2024 using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. Time series data on maize production, cultivated area, rainfall, temperature, water availability, and carbon dioxide emissions were collected from the Economic Survey of Pakistan and the World Bank. The ARDL model was employed to examine both short-run and long-run relationships between these variables. Despite an overall increasing trend in maize area and production, the results reveal that temperature and water availability have significant negative effects on yields in the long run, while rainfall and CO₂ emissions exhibit positive impacts. In the short run, rainfall and cultivated area support production, whereas temperature and water shortages hinder it. The Johansen cointegration test confirms the presence of two significant long-run relationships among the variables. These findings highlight the growing influence of climate change on maize productivity in Pakistan, emphasizing the need for informed policy actions to safeguard the agriculture sector. The study recommends introducing climate-resilient maize varieties, training farmers on climate-smart practices, strengthening early warning systems for extreme weather events, and implementing policies to support farmers during weather-related threats.