SOCIO-TECHNO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF HYDROGEN ADOPTION AS A TRANSPORT SECTOR FUEL ALTERNATIVE IN PAKISTAN: AN ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS APPROACH

Abstract

Pakistan’s transport sector consumes over 60% of petroleum products, costing USD 15–16 billion annually in imports, and accounting for nearly 30% of national CO₂ emissions, exacerbating urban air pollution. This study evaluates alternative fuel pathways for sustainable transport transformation using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Three options were considered: Battery Electric Vehicles (EVs), Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (HFCVs), and Fossil Fuel Vehicles (FFVs), assessed across four criteria: environmental, economic, technological, and social. Expert judgments from 20 specialists in engineering, energy economics, and policy were synthesized through pairwise comparisons, with all matrices satisfying consistency thresholds (CR ≤ 0.1). Results indicate EVs as the preferred alternative with a global priority score of 44.5%, followed by HFCVs (21.0%) and FFVs (19.0%). Environmental criteria were most influential (50.9% weight), dominated by air quality considerations, while economic factors ranked second (26.7%). EVs outperformed in air quality (62.6%) and regulatory alignment (71.5%), while FFVs retained short-term advantages in investment costs. Sensitivity tests confirmed the robustness of the ranking under ±20% weight variation. The study recommends a phased strategy: (i) near-term EV infrastructure expansion and incentives (2024–2027); (ii) medium-term local EV manufacturing and hydrogen demonstration for freight (2027–2032); and (iii) long-term integration of hydrogen for heavy-duty applications (post-2032). The findings provide evidence-based guidance for Pakistan’s National EV Policy and highlight broader lessons for transport decarbonization in developing economies.