EVALUATING PAKISTAN’S NUCLEAR DOCTRINE: DRIVERS, CAPABILITY DEVELOPMENT, AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR SOUTH ASIA

Abstract

Pakistan’s nuclear posture has transformed from strategic ambiguity into a structured model of Full Spectrum Deterrence, reflecting historical trauma, conventional military asymmetry with India, doctrinal competition, and advancing technologies. This research investigates the principal drivers shaping Pakistan’s nuclear trajectory and evaluates the degree of coherence between Pakistan’s declared nuclear policy and its demonstrated capabilities. Drawing on Deterrence Theory as the primary analytical framework, the study integrates doctrinal assessments, secondary literature, and publicly available capability data. Findings indicate that Pakistan’s declared nuclear posture and its observable nuclear force development are broadly aligned, with negligible gaps in naval nuclear development. The analysis concludes that Pakistan’s expanding deterrence architecture strengthens crisis stability in South Asia, but its future credibility depends on economic resilience, technological modernization, and sustained strategic communication.