ASSESSING FOREST DYNAMICS OF AYUBIA NATIONAL PARK: LINKING CLIMATIC VARIABILITY AND LAND USE LAND COVER CHANGE USING GEOSPATIAL TECHNIQUES

Abstract

The dynamics of forests are essential to comprehend the resilience of the ecosystem to climate change and human anthropogenic demands. This study assessed the forest cover changes in Ayubia National Park (ANP), Pakistan, over a 30-year period (1994–2024), using Landsat satellite imagery and geospatial techniques. To verify accuracy and image classification under supervision they were classified at four time points (1994, 2004, 2014, 2024), and were supported by climatic data (temperature and precipitation).The Results indicate that the forest cover expanded by 318 ha (13.04%), grassland, and barren lands decreased by 136 ha (29.25) and 182 ha (38.89) respectively, that is, between 1994 and 2024, implying a successful natural regeneration and conservation initiative like Billion Tree Afforestation Project. Despite a rise in mean annual temperature (+1.11 °C) and a reduction in mean annual precipitation (–18.67 mm), Over the study period, forest expansion persisted, highlighting the resilience of temperate ecosystems. The integration of remote sensing and climate data underscores the role of climate- smart forestry and sustainable land use planning in ensuring biodiversity conservation and ecosystem stability in Pakistan’s protected areas.