FRAGILE DETERRENCE UNDER SYSTEMIC COMPRESSION: ESCALATION DYNAMICS AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF WARFARE IN SOUTH ASIA

Abstract

This article examines the transformation of deterrence and escalation dynamics in South Asia through the concept of systemic compression, with primary empirical focus on the 2025 Indo–Pakistan crisis. It argues that contemporary instability does not originate in the failure of nuclear deterrence, ideological hostility, or leadership pathology, but in the erosion of conventional deterrence under conditions of accelerated technological change and slow institutional adaptation. Drawing on structural realism and an expanded formulation of deterrence theory, the study shows how compressed decision-making timelines, multi-domain operations, and early strategic signalling have inverted traditional escalation sequencing. Methodologically, the article adopts an interpretive and case-informed qualitative approach, centring the 2025 crisis as a consolidated expression of structural change while using earlier crises within the past decade only as contextual reference points. The article contributes to international relations scholarship by refining the stability–instability debate and advancing systemic compression as a regional explanatory framework for understanding fragile deterrence in the nuclear age.