CLIMATE-INDUCED MIGRATION AND BORDER MILITARIZATION IN SOUTH ASIA: A CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF SECURITIZATION DYNAMICS, STATE RESPONSES, AND HUMAN RIGHTS

Abstract

The nexus between climate change, forced displacement, and state securitization constitutes one of the most complex and underexplored intersections in contemporary International Relations scholarship. In South Asia, a region that harbours nearly a quarter of the world's population and is classified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as a "high-risk" zone for climate-related hazards, millions of individuals are being compelled to migrate due to sea-level rise, cyclonic intensification, riverine flooding, desertification, and glacial melt. Yet, rather than addressing this displacement as a humanitarian phenomenon, regional states have progressively adopted militarized border architectures, framing climate migrants as security threats through a process theorized in this study as eco-securitization. The study employs a mixed-methods approach combining qualitative document analysis of state policy instruments, bilateral treaty frameworks, and UN reports (2010–2025) with quantitative analysis of displacement data drawn from the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC), UNHCR, and the World Bank. Structured elite interviews with 24 policymakers, security officials, and civil society actors from Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan are integrated with critical discourse analysis of securitization narratives across all three nations. The study finds that between 2015 and 2024, climate-related displacement in South Asia increased by 218% while border infrastructure investment grew by 340% along the India-Bangladesh frontier alone. Paradoxically, militarization does not reduce irregular crossings but increases vulnerability, mortality, and documented human rights violations. A novel Securitization-Vulnerability Paradox (SVP) framework is developed and empirically validated across three country cases, demonstrating that enhanced border militarization inversely correlates with humanitarian outcomes for climate-displaced populations. This research advances a transformative policy architecture termed the Climate-Mobility Governance Framework (CMGF), calling for a paradigm shift from coercive border securitization to cooperative, rights-based regional mobility governance. The findings contribute three novel theoretical propositions to International Relations scholarship and carry direct implications for HEC-Priority research on climate diplomacy, South Asian regional security, and human rights law