CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ON POLLINATOR DIVERSITY AND AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY IN PAKISTAN

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of climate change on pollinator diversity and its subsequent effects on agricultural productivity in Pakistan. Increasing climatic variability, including rising temperatures, erratic rainfall patterns, and extreme weather events, has significantly disrupted ecological balance and threatened pollination services essential for crop production. The study employed a quantitative correlational research design using secondary time-series data on climatic indicators, pollinator diversity, and agricultural yield performance across major agro-ecological zones of Pakistan. The findings reveal a strong negative relationship between climate change variables and pollinator diversity, indicating that increasing temperature anomalies and rainfall variability significantly reduce pollinator populations. Moreover, pollinator diversity was found to have a strong positive effect on agricultural productivity, confirming its critical role in sustaining crop yields. Mediation analysis further demonstrated that pollinator diversity significantly mediates the relationship between climate change and agricultural productivity, highlighting its role as a key ecological link in climate-agriculture interactions. The study concludes that climate change poses a substantial threat to agricultural sustainability in Pakistan through its adverse effects on pollinator ecosystems. Strengthening biodiversity conservation and integrating pollinator protection into climate adaptation strategies are essential for ensuring long-term food security and ecological resilience.