ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC FALLOUT: IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL DISASTERS ON GDP IN PAKISTAN

Abstract

Pakistan is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change, experiencing frequent floods, heatwaves, and droughts that directly damage agriculture, infrastructure, and livelihoods. This paper investigates how climate‑induced natural disasters affect Pakistan’s GDP growth in the short and long term, identifies the most vulnerable economic sectors, evaluates the effectiveness of current institutional frameworks and policies, and compares the economic resilience of rural versus urban areas. The analysis draws on national‑level studies, post‑disaster assessments, and empirical time‑series and sectoral studies on Pakistan’s climate‑economy nexus. Findings show that agriculture‑dependent rural economies are disproportionately affected, while cities face growing strain from concentrated climate risks and migration. The paper concludes that existing institutional frameworks are conceptually strong but weakly implemented, and recommends targeted climate‑resilient investment, rural‑income diversification, and improved urban‑climate‑governance to reduce GDP‑drag from recurrent disasters. [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9]