CLIMATE SECURITY, WATER DIPLOMACY, AND GEOECONOMIC CONNECTIVITY: PAKISTAN'S STRATEGIC ROLE IN SOUTH ASIA

Abstract

Climate change has emerged as a critical non-traditional security challenge that increasingly influences regional stability, transboundary resource governance, and economic integration. South Asia remains one of the world's most climate-vulnerable regions, where climate-induced water insecurity, environmental degradation, and geopolitical complexities necessitate integrated policy responses. This study examined the interrelationships among climate security, water diplomacy, and geoeconomic connectivity while assessing Pakistan's strategic role in fostering sustainable regional cooperation in South Asia. Grounded in Complex Interdependence Theory, the study employed a quantitative, cross-sectional research design. Primary data were collected from policymakers, diplomats, environmental experts, academics, and strategic analysts through a structured questionnaire using purposive sampling. The proposed conceptual framework was empirically tested using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). The findings demonstrated that climate security significantly influenced both water diplomacy and geoeconomic connectivity. Water diplomacy also exhibited a significant positive effect on regional geoeconomic connectivity and served as a mediating mechanism between climate security and economic integration. The results further indicated that strengthening climate-resilient water governance enhances institutional cooperation, regional trust, and sustainable economic connectivity, thereby reinforcing Pakistan's strategic role in promoting regional stability. The study contributes to the literature by integrating climate security, hydro-diplomacy, and geoeconomic connectivity within a unified analytical framework. It also extends Complex Interdependence Theory by illustrating the multidimensional interactions among environmental governance, diplomatic cooperation, and regional economic development. The findings provide practical and policy-relevant insights for governments, regional organizations, and international development partners seeking to strengthen climate resilience, transboundary water governance, and sustainable regional cooperation in South Asia.