IRREGULAR MIGRATION FROM PAKISTAN: ESTIMATING THE DARK FIGURE OF UNDOCUMENTED EMIGRATION AND ITS POLITICAL ECONOMY CONSEQUENCES

Abstract

The official migration figures understate the number of emigrants in Pakistan in three major ways: Firstly, individuals who migrate across borders without permission are not captured in the official statistics; secondly, students and visitors who enter Pakistan with a visa to join the workforce without registering as a BEO; and thirdly, skilled migrants who join the workforce in Western countries through employer-sponsored visa routes, without having to register as BEOs in Pakistan. Ashraf (2022a, 2022b) showed that the Bureau of Emigration and Overseas Employment (BEOE) figures are lower bounds of the Pakistani emigration since they only reflect what they see and don't reflect what they do not see. This study conducted a systematic multiple-systems estimation (MSE) method that relies on triangulation of BEOE formal outflow estimates, UNHCR estimates of irregular migrants in stock, Frontex estimates of irregular border crossings, IOM vulnerability assessments, Eurostat estimates of illegal residence in the destination country, and the bilateral remittance data from the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) as an independent diagnostic proxy, to produce the first systematic dark figure estimate for Pakistani irregular and non-BEOE emigration. This study estimates the total Pakistani emigration at 37 to 57 percent higher than what is registered in BEOE in recent years. The official statistics on Pakistani emigration underestimate the real emigration level by a factor of 2.3 to 1.6. Irregular migrants are more likely to be male, from KPK and Punjab, semi-skilled and located on the corridor between Iran, Turkey and Greece. Non-BEOE professional migrants are mainly registered in the USA and UK, have higher skills and salary levels compared to their BEOE counterparts and account for 24 to 31 percent of the total remittance inflows from less than 0.5 percent BEOE. Political economy implications of this systemic invisibility involve misdirected government policies, unprotected irregular migrant population and lack of diaspora policy for the most economically productive population of Pakistan residing abroad