CLIMATE CHANGE AND FLASH-FLOOD RISK IN MOUNTAINOUS KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA: EVIDENCE FROM BAJAUR, BUNER AND SWAT 2025.

Abstract

Mountainous Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Pakistan, is highly vulnerable to flash floods, landslides, cloudbursts, and other hydro-meteorological hazards due to steep terrain, narrow valleys, intense monsoon rainfall, rapid runoff, environmental degradation, and expanding settlements. This paper examines climate-related flash-flood risk in Bajaur, Buner, and Swat, focusing on the August 2025 monsoon disaster. Using qualitative secondary data from peer-reviewed studies, NDMA and PDMA reports, government documents, and climate-attribution research, the study finds that extreme rainfall interacted with existing social, environmental, and infrastructural vulnerabilities to produce severe impacts. Buner experienced particularly high human losses, while Bajaur and Swat faced deaths, displacement, infrastructure damage, and livelihood disruption. Progress included emergency response, road restoration, weather monitoring, early warnings, and rehabilitation. However, gaps remain in localized forecasting, warning dissemination, risk mapping, land-use planning, watershed management, resilient infrastructure, and adaptation finance. The paper recommends integrated, community-based, anticipatory, and climate-resilient disaster-risk management.