EVALUATING CANADA'S FOREIGN-POLICY OPTIONS UNDER U.S. ECONOMIC COERCION AND ASYMMETRIC INTERDEPENDENCE: A POLICY ANALYSIS OF STRATEGIC RESILIENCE

Abstract

Canada is institutionally closer to the United States, but the structure of Canada's integration with the U.S. is very uneven, with high levels of economic, energy, defence and institutional integration, which means that it is very exposed to disruption. In 2025, 71.7% of Canada's total exports were sold to the United States and 63.4% of Canada's crude-oil imports were from the United States, with 90.1% of Canada's crude-oil exports shipped to the United States. While exports to non-U.S. markets grew, reliance figures are still quite high. This article explores liberal institutionalism, realism, constructivism, and weaponized interdependence as the options that Canada has in its foreign policy. It compares Australia with South Korea in a structured way and employs qualitative policy analysis, secondary trade and energy data to analyse institutional density, reciprocal exposure, and defection costs. The results reveal that Canadian vulnerability is sector-specific, that bargaining power exists, but is limited, and that institutions can limit but fail to eradicate coercive pressures. The article concludes that strategic energy diplomacy, CUSMA institutional defence and trade diversification are mutually supportive means of being more resilient in Canada without separation from the United States.