CLIMATE CHANGE, DISPLACEMENT, AND HUMAN TRAFFICKING IN PAKISTAN: MAPPING A CLIMATE–VULNERABILITY NEXUS

Abstract

The impacts of climate change are now seen as a cause for displacement, insecurity of livelihoods, poverty and social vulnerabilities, but climate change and its connection to human trafficking have not been sufficiently explored, especially in climate-vulnerable developing nations like Pakistan. The present paper looks into the climate change and its role with regard to human trafficking in Pakistan by understanding it as a risk multiplier which increases pre-existing socio-economic and institutional vulnerabilities and not as a direct and automatic cause of trafficking. The paper builds on the climate-impact material from the original study, and updates the analysis with evidence from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), the International Labor Organization (ILO), the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), the World Bank and U.S. Department of State to develop a climate–vulnerability nexus: the connection between environmental shocks and trafficking risks. Flood, drought, heatwaves, agriculture loses, water insecurity, displacement, unemployment, indebtedness, child vulnerability, gender inequality and unsafe migration are specific issues that are highlighted. Pakistan floods of 2022 are assessed as a critical case due to the number of people affected (around 33 million), millions of people displaced, livelihoods disrupted, and the total damages and economic losses of more than US$30 billion. As of 2024, there are indications that climate-related disasters can lead to an increase in poverty, food insecurity, unemployment, debt and displacement, which may create conditions for forced labor, bonded labor, child labor, domestic servitude and other forms of exploitation to become more prevalent. As such, the paper concludes, the policy on anti-trafficking needs to be linked to the policy on climate adaptation, DRR, social protection, labor governance, safe migration arrangements, and child protection measures in Pakistan. It puts forward a climate-sensitive anti-trafficking framework with six pillars – prevention, protection, safe mobility, decent work, institutional coordination and climate-resilient livelihoods.