NATURE-POSITIVE RESOURCE GOVERNANCE UNDER CLIMATE AND LAND-USE CHANGE: COUPLED SOCIO-ECOLOGICAL MODELING OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICES, RESOURCE DEPLETION, AND RESILIENCE

Abstract

Conventional natural resource management paradigms, which treat environmental systems as static and external to economic decision-making, have proven inadequate amid intensifying climate disruption, land-use transformation, and resource depletion. This review synthesizes the conceptual foundations, methodological architectures, and governance innovations underpinning nature-positive resource governance within coupled socio-ecological systems (SES). Drawing on the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework and related policy benchmarks, the paper examines how nature-positive governance transcends incremental sustainability by mandating active ecosystem restoration and regeneration. We critically evaluate modeling paradigms Agent-Based Models, System Dynamics, bioeconomic frameworks, and spatially explicit tools such as InVEST and ARIES comparing their treatment of human agency, spatial-temporal fidelity, and coupling capacity. Particular attention is given to loose, tight, and constitutive coupling paradigms that govern bidirectional feedbacks between social and ecological modules. The review further operationalizes ecosystem services, resource depletion, and resilience through Resource Nexus frameworks (WEF to BEFC), the Ten Pillars of Resilience, Gross Ecosystem Product accounting, and China's Ecological Conservation Redline. Governance architecture is analyzed through polycentric institutions, power dynamics, environmental justice, and relational values, alongside advanced parameter optimization methods including the SalVO framework and policy gradient techniques. Persistent challenges temporal and spatial system mismatches, uncertainty, and validation gaps are addressed through structured evaluation protocols and transdisciplinary co-production. We conclude that integrating high-performance computation, equity-centered governance, and participatory scenario design is essential for credible, actionable decision-support platforms capable of steering socio-ecological systems toward nature-positive trajectories by 2030 and 2050.